Washington, D.C. — February 2025
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), once the backbone of American-led global development efforts, now stands on the brink of an uncertain future under President Donald Trump’s second administration. The agency’s recent decision to place all direct-hire personnel on administrative leave globally—with only a handful of essential staff remaining—has sent shockwaves through the international development sector.
This move is not just an administrative reshuffle; it signals a potential dismantling of USAID as the world knows it. And for the millions of people who rely on USAID’s projects for health, education, humanitarian aid, and democracy promotion, the stakes could not be higher.
A Target on USAID’s Back?
President Trump’s skepticism toward foreign aid is not new. During his first term, his administration sought to slash USAID’s budget repeatedly, redirecting funds toward domestic priorities and national security concerns. His “America First” agenda often clashed with the traditional U.S. approach to global development, which emphasized soft power, economic stability, and diplomatic engagement through aid.
Now, in his second term, the writing appears to be on the wall. The decision to effectively freeze USAID operations worldwide hints at a broader strategy to defund, restructure, or even dismantle the agency. This could have catastrophic consequences for developing nations, partner organizations, and the global fight against poverty, disease, and climate change.
What’s at Stake for the Global Development Sector?
1. Funding Gaps and Project Abandonment
USAID funds and implements thousands of projects worldwide, from malaria prevention in Africa to disaster relief in conflict zones and support for democratic governance. With the agency’s operations grinding to a halt, projects are at risk of collapse. Many partner organizations, including NGOs and UN agencies, depend on USAID funding to function. A prolonged shutdown could lead to severe budget shortfalls and the abrupt termination of lifesaving programs.
2. Mass Job Losses in the Development Sector
Beyond USAID’s own staff, a ripple effect is already underway across the development sector. Thousands of local and international NGOs, contractors, and consultants rely on USAID for funding and partnerships. A sudden reduction in USAID’s presence means that hundreds of thousands of jobs across the global development ecosystem could disappear.
3. U.S. Influence in Global Development Declining
For decades, USAID has been a pillar of U.S. diplomacy and soft power. The agency’s withdrawal from global development would create a power vacuum, potentially allowing China, Russia, and other geopolitical rivals to step in and expand their influence in fragile states. Without USAID’s guidance and resources, developing nations may turn to alternative models of aid that do not align with U.S. values on democracy, human rights, and free markets.
4. A Setback for Climate and Humanitarian Efforts
The impact of USAID’s crisis is not just political—it’s humanitarian. USAID has been a leading force in global climate action, food security, and refugee response. If programs stall, millions of vulnerable people could be left without assistance in areas where climate change, food shortages, and displacement are already worsening.
What Happens Next?
With USAID in limbo, development professionals, partner organizations, and policymakers are scrambling for answers. While the agency has suggested case-by-case exemptions for personnel abroad, there is little clarity on whether this shutdown is temporary or the first step toward a larger restructuring—or even the agency’s dissolution.
Some in Congress are already pushing back, arguing that USAID’s shutdown could be legally questionable and that development aid is essential for national security. However, with a Republican-controlled Congress more aligned with Trump’s “cut foreign aid” stance, efforts to restore USAID’s operations face an uphill battle.
A Dark Future for Global Development?
The world is watching as USAID faces its greatest existential threat in history. If the agency is indeed dismantled or significantly weakened, it will mark the end of an era in U.S. global leadership in development. For the millions of people who depend on USAID’s work, and for the organizations that have long partnered with it, the consequences could be devastating.
Unless there is a strong pushback from Congress, international allies, and the American public, the current crisis may be just the beginning of a new, uncertain future for the development sector—one with fewer resources, less U.S. engagement, and a far weaker global safety net for those in need.
